The al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims is widening its reach beyond the Sahel into coastal West Africa, a new report warns. The International Crisis Group said on Friday the group is advancing cautiously, wary of overextending its fragile network.
Founded in 2017, JNIM has become the dominant militant force across the central Sahel’s fractured and contested terrain. It now controls large rural swathes of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, entrenching itself in areas where state authority has withered.
Since 2019, the group has pushed south toward Gulf of Guinea states, spreading ideology and building logistical corridors. Yet it has stopped short of seizing or holding territory in those coastal nations, relying instead on sporadic attacks.
The ICG described this outward movement as a strategic dilemma for the insurgent organisation. Expansion offers recruitment opportunities, access to cross-border trade routes and breathing space from national military offensives.
It also provides fallback zones for fighters retreating from pressure in the Sahel heartlands. But stretching operations drains manpower needed to defend core strongholds and risks internal fractures, the report cautioned.
West African coastal states now face mounting security anxiety as the threat inches closer to their borders. Benin and Togo appear particularly vulnerable to infiltration and destabilisation, according to the ICG assessment.
“Expansion is not the main priority for the group,” the report noted, warning that moving too quickly could splinter its ranks.
The ICG urged threatened governments to deepen understanding of local dynamics and rebuild cooperation with Sahelian neighbours. It also called for exploring possible understandings with insurgents that might reduce violence over the long term.
Data from Armed Conflict Location and Event Data shows JNIM has been linked to more than 16,000 incidents since 2017. Those incidents have resulted in nearly 40,000 deaths across Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Benin and Togo, underscoring the scale of the crisis.