Nigeria’s opposition efforts to unite ahead of the 2027 presidential election have suffered a major setback after two key figures, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, withdrew from a newly formed alliance, citing internal divisions and legal disputes.
The pair, who finished third and fourth respectively in the 2023 presidential race, had joined forces with former vice president Atiku Abubakar under a coalition led by the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The alliance had been seen as the most ambitious attempt in over a decade to unify Nigeria’s fragmented opposition.
However, in a statement, Obi said he left due to “endless court cases, internal battles, suspicion, and division” within the coalition. Kwankwaso also exited, with both men joining another opposition platform, the Nigeria Democratic Congress.
An agreement reached on April 25 to field a single presidential candidate now appears in jeopardy. ADC spokesperson Bolaji Abdullahi said the so-called “Ibadan Declaration” — which proposed a unified ticket — would need to be reconsidered.
Analysts say the split could significantly weaken the opposition’s chances against President Bola Tinubu, raising the likelihood of a divided vote in 2027.
“The feared scenario has materialised: a fractured opposition that will cannibalise its own votes,” said Cheta Nwanze, a partner at Lagos-based SBM Intelligence, adding that the unity plan was now “on life support.”
Tinubu secured victory in the 2023 election with about 35% of the vote, while opposition candidates collectively won roughly 60% — a gap the coalition had hoped to close by uniting behind a single contender.
Longstanding rivalries and competing regional bases have complicated those efforts. Atiku, a dominant northern political figure, and Obi, who drew strong support from southern and younger voters, have struggled to align on a joint ticket.
The presidency has dismissed the fallout, with spokesperson Bayo Onanuga criticising Obi’s departure in a post on X, accusing him of political opportunism.
The latest developments leave Tinubu in a stronger position, benefiting from incumbency and the organisational strength of his ruling party as the opposition grapples with internal fractures.
Nigeria has seen an incumbent president defeated only once, in 2015, when Goodluck Jonathan lost to Muhammadu Buhari following a rare opposition merger.