Fitch upgrades Egypt’s rating to B with stable outlook

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Fitch affirms Nigeria’s ‘B-’ rating with positive outlook

 Fitch Ratings said Friday it affirmed Nigeria’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating at ‘B-‘ with a positive outlook. The rating agency said Nigeria’s rating is supported by the country’s large economy, developed and liquid domestic debt market and large oil and natural gas reserves. Those factors, however, are balanced against weak governance indicators, high hydrocarbon dependence, weak net foreign exchange reserves, high inflation, ongoing security challenges and low non-oil revenue. Fitch expects crude oil production to increase in 2024-2026, averaging 1.4 million barrels per day, from 1.23 million in 2023, due to improved onshore surveillance.

Kenya reinstates tax hikes, sparks concern

Kenya’s government plans to reintroduce tax hikes that led to protests earlier this year, despite public opposition and economic concerns.

Turkey aims to become gas hub in 2025 with Russia’s help

Turkey’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced plans to launch a gas hub in 2025, powered by Russian gas and centered around Istanbul.

Algeria buys 480,000 tons of wheat

Algeria’s state grains agency, OAIC, has secured a significant wheat supply through a recent international tender.

Egypt’s foreign assets drop after two-year high in may

Egypt’s net foreign assets fell by $3.53 billion in August, reaching $9.72 billion, following a peak in May, as the country engages in renewed talks with the IMF for financial support.

Niger signs deal with Starlink for internet

Niger has partnered with SpaceX’s Starlink to provide high-speed internet access to the entire country, aiming to boost digital infrastructure and security.

Senegal secures $300M for 2024 budget after IMF delay

The government aims to engage with the IMF to establish a new program that aligns with its objectives for stabilizing the macroeconomic framework

Italy and Libya sign deals to boost cooperation

Italy’s Mattei Plan, aimed at fostering cooperation with African countries, has led to several agreements with Libya, including those related to energy, infrastructure, and migration.

Nigeria central bank pledges economic stability, inflation control

Nigeria’s central bank chief vows to use all available tools to combat rising inflation, as the country grapples with the impact of recent economic reforms.

Angola’s Cabinda refinery nears completion early

Angola’s Cabinda oil refinery, a joint venture between Gemcorp and Sonangol, is set to begin production in early 2024, ahead of schedule but over budget

World Bank: Global commodity prices to hit 5-year low by 2025

Forecasts show oil prices falling because of surplus, gold reaching new records, metal stabilizing in next 2 years

Ghana eyes Nigeria’s Dangote refinery for cheaper fuel

Ghana plans to import petroleum products from Nigeria’s Dangote Oil Refinery to reduce fuel costs and decrease reliance on European imports.

Kenya’s court blocks $740 million Adani energy contract

Kenya’s High Court has halted the government’s plans to award a major electricity transmission contract to India’s Adani Energy Solutions Limited, citing concerns over the procurement process. On Friday, the court issued an order blocking the Sh95.68 billion ($740 million) deal after the Law Society of Kenya (LSK) petitioned against it, highlighting issues of public participation and constitutional compliance. Justice Bahati Mwamuye ruled for a conservatory order, suspending any project agreements related to the development of transmission lines and substations. The project, designed to enhance Kenya’s electricity infrastructure, has been controversial since its signing on October 11 as a 30-year public-private partnership with the Kenya Electricity Transmission Company (KETRACO). It aimed to finance several high-voltage transmission lines. This court decision is seen as a win for local contractors who argued they were unfairly excluded from the bidding process. Adani Group’s recent attempt to secure a management lease at Nairobi’s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport has also faced public protests, with critics expressing concerns over potential threats to local jobs and sovereignty. Both the airport project and the transmission line deal have faced scrutiny over transparency and public involvement, with opponents warning of economic risks tied to foreign control of critical infrastructure.

IMF warns of slow growth for Africa’s commodity economies

Africa’s commodity-dependent nations are facing economic headwinds, with the IMF calling for urgent reforms to boost growth and reduce reliance on volatile commodity markets.

Egypt’s Economy Expected to Grow 4% by June 2025

Egypt’s economy is projected to grow by 4.0% by June 2025 as it begins to recover from austerity measures linked to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program, according to a recent Reuters survey of economists. The poll, conducted from October 9 to 23, anticipates GDP growth will accelerate to 4.7% in the fiscal year 2025/26 and rise further to 5.3% by 2026/27. In the current fiscal year 2023/24, GDP growth is expected to fall to 2.4%, down from 3.8% the previous year. Key challenges include a currency crisis and ongoing conflict in neighboring Gaza, which have negatively impacted tourism and Suez Canal revenues. Earlier this year, Egypt secured a major agreement with the UAE’s ADQ sovereign fund for $24 billion in development rights for real estate along its Mediterranean coast. This deal facilitated an $8 billion financial reform package with the IMF in March. James Swanston from Capital Economics noted that while Egypt’s economic outlook is gradually improving, strict fiscal policies will remain essential to address the budget deficit and the debt-to-GDP ratio. He highlighted that the benefits of a weaker pound are beginning to materialize. Although inflation is slowing, it is expected to remain high, with forecasts of 20.4% for 2024/25 and 11.4% for 2025/26. Inflation slightly rose to 26.4% in September, down from a peak of 38.0% in 2023. The IMF also estimates a 4.1% growth rate for Egypt’s economy in 2025. Analysts predict further depreciation of the Egyptian pound, forecasting it to reach about 50.4 per dollar by the end of June 2025 and 52.0 by June 2026. The central bank previously maintained the pound’s value at 30.85 to the dollar until it was allowed to float in March 2024; the current exchange rate is around 48.8 to the dollar. Additionally, analysts expect the central bank’s overnight lending rate to decrease to 22.25% by June 2025 and further to 14.25% by June 2026, providing much-needed support for households and businesses in the coming years.

Mali accuses Barrick Gold of breaching mining deal

Mali alleges Barrick violated their mining pact, potentially jeopardizing Barrick’s operations in the country.

Sudan-South Sudan pipeline back online, exports to resume

South Sudan will soon resume pumping crude oil for export through Sudan after repairs to a key pipeline damaged during the ongoing conflict.

Binance exec freed, but legal issues in Nigeria remain

Nigerian government has dropped money laundering charges against a Binance executive, Tigran Gambaryan, due to his deteriorating health.

First Quantum seeks partners for Zambian assets

First Quantum Minerals is actively seeking potential partners for its Zambian mining assets, with Saudi Arabia’s Manara Minerals being a frontrunner for a minority stake acquisition.

Mozambique’s dollar bond falls amid election tensions

Election-related tensions and rising debt levels have contributed to the decline in Mozambique’s eurobond, as investors seek safer investments.

Quality issues shadow Ivory Coast’s cocoa boom

Despite record rainfall, Ivory Coast’s cocoa farmers face difficulties with financing and quality control, affecting the overall production.

BRICS expansion as a win for African countries

Experts from the Global South view the recent expansion of the BRICS bloc as a positive development. “Any expansion means more voices for those who were unheard and left out of the integration process,” stated Aravind Yelery, a professor at India’s Jawaharlal Nehru University. This perspective emerged during a meeting of 40 think tanks organized by the International Department of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the China Media Group. The gathering addressed the future of global development amid significant change and turmoil, ahead of the upcoming BRICS summit in Russia from October 22-24. Originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, BRICS expanded earlier this year to include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, and Ethiopia. Many believe this expansion will amplify the voices of more countries on the international stage. With the Global South representing about 40% of global GDP and 85% of the world’s population, its influence in global affairs is growing. The expansion of BRICS is seen as a way to create more balance against the Western-dominated international order.

Mali to pay off $332 million internal debt

Mali’s economy has been struggling due to various factors, including coups and regional sanctions.

Ivory Coast’s Lafigue mine to boost Endeavour’s gold production

New Lafigue Mine in Ivory Coast aims for 200,000 ounces of annual gold production under Endeavour Mining.

Economic hardship linked to tragic fuel tanker explosion in Nigeria

Residents of Lagos on Wednesday linked economic hardship and hunger to the tragic deaths of individuals who were collecting fuel from an overturned tanker before it exploded. The explosion in Nigeria claimed over 140 lives, including children, and left many injured. The incident occurred in Majiya, Jigawa State, around midnight when the driver lost control of the gasoline tanker on a highway, leading to a massive fire as people rushed to scoop up the spilling fuel, according to emergency services. “I blame both the people and the government,” said civil servant Emenike Okpaga. “If the government prioritized citizens’ welfare, incidents like this wouldn’t happen.” Software engineer Emmanuel Isaac added, “No one in their right mind would scoop fuel unless driven by hunger. When people see a chance to make money from it, they take it.” In Majiya, residents mourned as they held a mass burial for the victims, most of whom were unrecognizable, according to emergency responders. Fatal tanker accidents are frequent in Nigeria, where traffic regulations are often ignored and efficient cargo transport systems are lacking. The rising fuel prices, which have tripled since the end of government subsidies last year, have led many to salvage fuel from such accidents.

South Africa central bank eyes lower inflation target

South Africa’s central bank governor argues for a lower inflation target, citing studies that show minimal negative impact on economic growth.

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