Israeli assessments are increasingly linking the future of the US-Iran confrontation to the political calendar in Washington, amid warnings that Tehran could pursue a calculated military escalation before the US midterm elections to weaken President Donald Trump’s administration.
Israel’s Maariv newspaper cited former Israeli ambassador to Washington Michael Oren as saying talks between the United States and Iran have reached a near dead end, with chances of a lasting agreement now “extremely slim” as both sides hold firm to their positions.
Oren said Iran’s leadership is closely watching the domestic political calculations in the United States and may seek to exploit the coming period by launching a military move that could drive up oil prices, unsettle the US economy and damage Republican prospects in the midterm elections scheduled for November.
He warned that such a scenario requires the United States and its allies to prepare for the possibility of a renewed military confrontation, saying the option of war remains on the table if Tehran decides to use escalation as a form of political pressure.
Oren also tied the future of Trump’s Iran policy to the election results. If Republicans retain their majority, he said, Trump would have greater room to adopt tougher decisions. But if they lose one or both chambers of Congress, the president could face domestic pressure and possible impeachment efforts.
The former ambassador said Trump’s opponents may seek to use allegations related to corruption and financial deals to launch political proceedings against him, arguing that the future of the confrontation with Iran will not be decided only in the Gulf or at the negotiating table, but also at the US ballot box.
The Israeli assessment reflects a growing belief that the coming months could see an unusual overlap between military and political calculations, with the US elections potentially influencing the course of the Iran crisis — and even shaping decisions on war or de-escalation.