After years of ruling out negotiations with the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels, Democratic Republic of Congo President Felix Tshisekedi is now considering talks in response to mounting defeats and dwindling regional support.
In a surprising development this week, Angola announced that direct talks between Congo and the M23 would take place in its capital, Luanda, on March 18. The M23 rebels continue to seize key territories in eastern Congo, rich in minerals like coltan and tantalum.
Although Tshisekedi’s government has not publicly committed to the talks, three sources confirmed to Reuters that he is seriously considering sending a delegation.
With the Congolese military and allied forces struggling to halt the rebel advance, regional powers seem united in pushing for dialogue. Diplomatic sources and analysts suggest that many believe engaging the rebels is the only path to peace.
“I haven’t spoken to a single African country that opposes Kinshasa talking to M23,” one senior diplomat stated. “The consensus is clear: how do you stop the fighting if you don’t engage with them?”
One source indicated that the government’s participation is likely, but the final decision on who will represent Congo in Luanda may not be made until next week.
On Thursday, M23 demanded a clear commitment from Tshisekedi to engage in the talks. Both sides raised concerns over how the upcoming Angola-hosted dialogue would align with regional decisions aimed at resolving the conflict.
Southern and East African foreign and defense ministers are set to meet in Harare on Monday to discuss efforts to halt the fighting and initiate political dialogue.
“FAILED” MILITARY STRATEGY
M23 has advanced significantly since late January, seizing Congo’s two largest cities and many smaller towns, aided by thousands of Rwandan troops and superior weaponry. Rwanda denies supporting M23 but claims its forces are defending themselves against hostile militias and the Congolese army.
Negotiating with M23 would likely be controversial in Kinshasa, especially given Tshisekedi’s earlier refusal to consider dialogue. However, analysts view it as a necessary shift acknowledging that his military strategy has faltered.
Bob Kabamba, a Congolese analyst at the University of Liege, explained: “Kinshasa’s shift toward dialogue makes sense because it is stuck, fearing that the rebel alliance could reach a critical threshold.”
Angola’s intervention appears to stem from concerns about a broader regional conflict similar to the wars of the 1990s and early 2000s, which caused millions of deaths.
“Angola has decided that it’s essential to act to prevent M23 from advancing further west into Congo,” said Stephanie Wolters, a Congo expert with the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa.
The decision to approve the “phased withdrawal” of SAMIDRC, a regional deployment meant to fight the rebels, further underscores doubts about Tshisekedi’s military strategy. Though SAMIDRC was ineffective in stopping M23, its presence was a symbol of regional support for Congo, and its departure is a significant setback, according to Wolters.