Eritrea, a former Italian colony federated with Ethiopia in 1952, gained independence after nearly three decades of bloody struggle.
A brief rapprochement over the Red Sea ports of Assab and Massawa collapsed into the 1998-2000 border war, killing tens of thousands.
Relations remained frozen for nearly two decades, with minor improvements emerging in 2018 under Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s leadership.
Tensions reignited after the 2020-2022 Tigray war, as Ethiopia renewed calls for sea access, including Eritrea’s strategic Assab port.
Experts warn a new conflict could draw 10-15 countries across three continents, risking a regional crisis dubbed “Africa’s Second World War.”
Professor Kjetil Tronvoll of Oslo New University College said relations deteriorated immediately after the 2022 Pretoria Agreement’s fragile truce.
Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki reportedly failed to annihilate the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, fueling mistrust and a hardened stance.
Tensions worsened in 2024 when Ethiopia pursued its sea access policy, asserting control over the Red Sea and challenging Eritrean sovereignty.
Addis Ababa accused Eritrea of backing the Amhara Fano insurgency and colluding with Tigrayan leaders, straining bilateral relations further.
Eritrea transitioned from an ally during the Tigray war back to being classified as a hostile nation by Ethiopia.
Tronvoll warned that massive troop deployments and escalating rhetoric foreshadow potential military confrontation along the northern borders.
He cautioned that proxies and regional actors could be pulled into a wider conflict if hostilities erupt between the two nations.
Diplomatic efforts may press Eritrea to cease interference, negotiate Ethiopia’s use of Assab port, and urge restraint on military escalation.
The Horn of Africa faces renewed uncertainty, with old rivalries and fresh provocations threatening to engulf the region in fresh turmoil.