Ethiopia faces a precarious future as escalating tensions in its northern Tigray region ignite fears of renewed conflict, potentially drawing in neighboring Eritrea.
The war-ravaged province, still reeling from a devastating two-year civil war, now grapples with internal power struggles within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
These divisions, exacerbated by limited resources post-conflict, see factions vying for dominance, allegedly aligning with external actors like Eritrea.
Analysts warn this internal strife risks reigniting the Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict, with potential to destabilize the wider Horn of Africa.
While experts suggest none of the involved parties overtly desire another full-scale war, their entangled interests and the pursuit of regional influence create a volatile mix.
Ethiopia’s renewed ambition for Red Sea access further strains relations with Eritrea, considered an “existential issue” by Addis Ababa.
Despite Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s public dismissal of war, military movements near Tigray and Eritrea’s increased regional engagement signal heightened preparedness for potential conflict.
The international community, including the African Union and the UN, faces a complex challenge in mediating a lasting resolution amid deep-seated mistrust and shifting alliances.
A political settlement prioritizing trust and compromise is viewed as the only viable path to avert another devastating regional war.