While Egypt is preoccupied with the developments in the war on Gaza, as well as Sudan’s immersion in the ongoing fighting between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Ethiopia has started to dry the middle corridor of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in preparation for the fifth filling.
Satellite images taken on Tuesday evening revealed the complete opening of the eastern spillway gate of the dam after the turbines stopped operating since September 16.
Dr. Abbas Sharaky, the Professor of Geology and Water Resources at Cairo University, stated that the images revealed the continued water flow over the upper part of the middle corridor, which is expected to stop in the coming week. Afterwards, the corridor will dry up, paving the way for the initiation of concrete works to raise the dam’s sides and the middle corridor.
He also confirmed that Ethiopia began early preparations this year to raise the dam’s height by an additional 20 meters. He pointed out that they aim to reach a height of 640 meters for the corridor to achieve a storage volume of about 64 billion cubic meters of water.
Sharaky mentioned that the fifth filling is Ethiopia’s sixth breach of the Declaration of Principles for the GERD, signed in March 2015, and the Presidential Statement of the UN Security Council in September 2021, explaining that these violations include the first filling in 2020, the second in 2021, the operation of the first turbine in February 2022, the third filling in 2022, the operation of the second turbine in August 2022, and the fourth filling in 2023.
The dam has been of concern to Egypt and Sudan. Sudan is concerned that the GERD might pose a significant risk to the operation of its Roseires dam and the lives of around 20 million Sudanese citizens if no agreement is reached.
It’s worth noting that Egypt filed a formal complaint to the United Nations Security Council against Ethiopia in September last year after the completion of the fourth filling. Egypt affirmed that Addis Ababa’s unilateral actions regarding the filling and operation of the dam constitute an existential threat to Egypt and endanger its stability.
Ethiopia’s move to prepare for the fifth filling comes after the conclusion of three negotiation rounds regarding the dam, following an agreement between Egyptian President and the Ethiopian Prime Minister on the sidelines of a conference involving Sudan’s neighbouring countries.
However, there hasn’t been significant progress, as Addis Ababa continues to procrastinate in fulfilling any commitments, according to official statements from the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources.