Ethiopia has raised serious concerns about the impending deployment of a new African Union-led peacekeeping mission in Somalia, warning that it could exacerbate tensions in the already volatile East African region. The warning comes as Egypt has announced plans to provide military aid to Somalia, further complicating the situation.
Scheduled to replace the existing African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) in January 2025, the new mission, known as the African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), is expected to continue the fight against the al-Shabaab jihadist group. However, Ethiopia’s foreign ministry has cautioned that AUSSOM could be “fraught with dangers,” accusing Somalia of collaborating with unnamed actors seeking to destabilize the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia’s concerns have been amplified by Egypt’s recent decision to provide military equipment to Somalia. This move is likely to escalate tensions between Cairo and Addis Ababa, which have been at odds for years over Ethiopia’s mega-dam project on the Blue Nile. Egypt views the dam as a threat to its water security, while Ethiopia sees it as crucial for its economic development.
The protracted negotiations over the dam have so far failed to yield a satisfactory agreement between the two countries. Additionally, relations between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa have deteriorated following Ethiopia’s maritime deal with the breakaway Somali region of Somaliland.
Egypt and Somalia, on the other hand, have strengthened their ties, signing a military cooperation agreement this month. While the specific nature of Egypt’s military aid to Somalia remains unclear, the Somali ambassador to Egypt has praised it as a significant step in implementing the outcomes of a recent summit between the leaders of the two countries.
The withdrawal of ATMIS by the end of 2024 will place a heavy burden on Somalia’s security forces, which will be expected to take over the responsibility of maintaining peace and security in the country. The success of the transition will depend on various factors, including the effectiveness of the new AU mission, the cooperation between Somalia and its neighbors, and the ability of the Somali government to address the root causes of insecurity.