Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is expecting its main October-to-March 2025/26 harvest to decline for the third consecutive year, with 1.3 million tons of cocoa contracts sold, down from 1.4 million tons last year, according to two Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) sources.
The sources said cocoa bean arrivals at the country’s main ports are expected to drop about 30% year-on-year between January and March 2026. Despite the decline, no risk of default is anticipated during the main harvest.
The reduction in output is attributed to ageing farms, limited investment by farmers, crop disease, and unpredictable rainfall patterns. “The season started well, with early arrivals meeting forecasts, but volumes will likely fall sharply between January and March,” said one CCC official.
Cross-border cocoa smuggling has also decreased this year, with fewer shipments into Guinea and Liberia and smaller inflows from neighbouring countries. “Cocoa from Liberia and Guinea contributes to our arrivals, but these are minor compared with our exports,” the official added.
Preliminary data from November indicate a 25-30% decline in the intermediate crop, a trend likely to worsen during the December-April “harmattan” dry season amid ongoing drought risks, the second CCC source said. “These signals mirror last year’s, and similar outcomes are expected,” they added.
To stabilise the market, the CCC plans to conduct stock checks and restrict exporter purchases, while offering all intermediate cocoa production on a spot basis to ensure steady grinding levels. “In principle, everyone will have the volume they need,” the official said.