Kenya is preparing for potentially severe rainfall as a powerful El Niño continues to strengthen, raising fears of flooding and displacement across parts of the country.
Weather experts expect above-normal rainfall during the October-to-December season. Kenyan authorities say that under a worst-case scenario, around 1.5 million people could be affected and about 500,000 displaced.
The warning comes as the World Meteorological Organization says the current El Niño is expected to become very strong and could persist until February 2027.
Kenya prepares for heavy El Niño rains
Kenya’s National Disaster Operations Centre is preparing for the possibility of widespread flooding and other weather-related emergencies.
Authorities are identifying vulnerable communities and critical infrastructure ahead of the expected rains.
Water supplies, electricity networks, roads and communication systems are among the infrastructure considered at risk.
The government has also strengthened its crisis communication system to ensure warnings reach communities before dangerous weather arrives.
Up to 1.5 million people could be affected
Officials estimate that up to 1.5 million people could be directly affected by heavy rainfall under a worst-case scenario.
Around 500,000 people could also be displaced.
Several parts of Kenya are being closely monitored for flooding and landslide risks as authorities prepare emergency response measures.
The government has been working with agencies and local authorities to prepare evacuation areas and position essential supplies closer to vulnerable communities.
El Niño expected to become very strong
The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño is firmly established in the tropical Pacific and is expected to strengthen further.
There is now a nearly 100% likelihood that the phenomenon will continue through February 2027.
WMO says it could become stronger than any El Niño recorded since its current monitoring system began around four decades ago.
El Niño involves unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It can significantly alter rainfall, temperatures and weather patterns around the world.
East Africa faces wetter conditions
Kenya is not the only country facing increased rainfall risks.
The Greater Horn of Africa is expected to experience warmer and wetter-than-normal conditions during the final months of 2026.
WMO says northeastern Kenya has a particularly high probability of enhanced rainfall. Excessive rain could increase the risk of floods, damage infrastructure and crops, and contribute to outbreaks of water- and vector-borne diseases.
At the same time, increased rainfall could improve water and pasture availability in some areas.
For Kenya, authorities are now focusing on preparedness as the October-to-December rainy season approaches.