Tension hangs heavy in the air as President Andry Rajoelina prepares to be sworn in for a new term on Saturday, facing a boycott from the opposition and international concerns about the island nation’s democratic future.
While representatives from other African nations will grace Madagascar’s national stadium for the ceremony, a stark absence will be felt. Former Presidents Marc Ravalomanana and Hery Rajaonarimampianina, who attended Rajoelina’s 2018 inauguration, are staying away this time. They, along with a large opposition coalition, have condemned the November 16th election as a “constitutional coup d’etat” aimed at extending Rajoelina’s grip on power.
The weeks leading up to the vote were marred by near-daily protests, which authorities have now banned in the capital, Antananarivo. Adding fuel to the fire, international observers from the European Union, United States, and other major donors raised concerns about “tensions and incidents” during the campaign and pointed out irregularities in the electoral process.
Western nations, in a joint statement, urged Rajoelina to “restore confidence conducive to dialogue” and undertake legal and electoral reforms before future elections. This call carries weight, considering Rajoelina’s own contentious rise to power in 2009, when he ousted Ravalomanana in a military mutiny without an election.
All eyes will be on Rajoelina’s inauguration speech, where he is expected to lay out his priorities for the new term. The economy, in dire straits, will undoubtedly be at the forefront. Madagascar, despite its wealth of natural resources, remains one of the world’s poorest countries, with 75% of its 29 million citizens living below the poverty line. The struggling vanilla industry, hit by price drops and sluggish demand, further highlights the nation’s economic woes.
While Rajoelina has promised to focus on improving livelihoods, his recent actions raise questions about his commitment to inclusivity. His last-minute distribution of solar lamps in areas without electricity, while aimed at portraying him as a man of the people, has been criticized by some as mere optics. His party’s dismissal of the opposition as “irresponsible” and the jailing of opposition activist Rina Randriamasinoro for two years for participating in a banned protest do little to dispel concerns about his tolerance for dissent.
Madagascar stands at a crossroads. As Rajoelina takes the oath of office, the international community and his own people will be watching closely to see if he can bridge the divide, address the nation’s deep-seated problems, and usher in a new era of stability and democracy for the island nation.
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