Experts are now pointing to the internal fractures within the National Congress Party (NCP), once the ruling party under Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir, as a potential catalyst for ending the brutal war between General al-Burhan’s forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The NCP, which was dissolved after al-Bashir’s ousting, remains a powerful political force, and its internal disputes are now playing a significant role in the ongoing conflict.
The war, which has ravaged Sudan since April 2023, has seen fierce fighting between al-Burhan’s SAF and the RSF, both of which are backed by various factions with conflicting interests.
Many of these factions within the SAF are tied to the remnants of the NCP, and analysts suggest that the party’s deepening internal divisions could lead to an unexpected resolution to the war.
Rising Tensions and the Battle for Leadership
The internal conflict within the NCP has grown particularly heated following the controversial appointment of Ahmed Haroun, a former Sudanese government minister who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes related to the Darfur conflict.
Haroun’s election as party leader, backed by Ali Karti—another key figure in the al-Bashir regime—has been fiercely contested by a rival faction led by Ibrahim Mahmoud Hamid. This internal rift has now become a flashpoint in Sudan’s already volatile political landscape.
Mahmoud’s faction has refused to recognize Haroun’s leadership, calling his appointment a coup against the party and its institutions. The division within the NCP escalated after Mahmoud’s group demanded the annulment of decisions made during a November 2023 meeting of the NCP’s Shura Council, which led to Haroun’s election.
Mahmoud’s supporters also called for the reinstatement of Mahmoud as leader until a new Shura meeting could be convened.
The conflict deepened after Haroun, upon his release from prison at the start of the war, traveled to Kassala in eastern Sudan to meet Mahmoud. Haroun reportedly informed Mahmoud that he had come on behalf of the Islamic Movement to rally jihadists to support the SAF. This move further complicated the already fraught situation, with Mahmoud’s faction accusing Karti and Haroun’s group of escalating the conflict by funneling resources to support one side.
A Fragmented Party on the Brink of Collapse
Political analysts, including Salah Hassan Jumaa, see the NCP’s internal divisions as the revival of long-standing disputes that were characteristic of the party during al-Bashir’s reign. Jumaa suggests that a faction within the party has deeply embedded itself in state institutions, particularly the military, and opposes any transfer of power to the Sudanese people.
The rift has now extended beyond the party’s leadership, seeping into its armed wing. Sudan’s jihadist battalions, which have fought alongside the SAF against the RSF, are also divided, with some Islamists questioning their loyalties amid the growing fragmentation.
A Silver Lining for Sudan’s People?
Despite the turmoil, some analysts believe the ongoing infighting within the NCP could eventually lead to a resolution of the war. Omar Mohammed al-Nour, another political analyst, argues that the divisions within the party might undermine those factions that have been prolonging the conflict for economic and political gain.
Al-Nour contends that these divisions could lower the morale of fighters and weaken the resolve of those determined to keep the war going, thereby hastening the end of the conflict.
The internal disputes also lend weight to accusations made by RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who has accused Karti’s faction of being primarily responsible for fueling the war in their pursuit of power. According to Dagalo, Karti’s group is more interested in securing economic and political advantages than in peace.
The Islamist-Military Alliance Frays
The power struggle within the NCP is not the only source of division in Sudan. Analysts have also noted growing tensions between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Sudan’s Islamist factions, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood, who were once allies of the military.
Key figures such as Haroun and Karti, former pillars of the Islamist political establishment, have increasingly aligned themselves against the military, contributing to a broader fracture within Sudan’s political and military spheres.
This rift has been exacerbated by strong regional and international opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood’s return to Sudan’s political scene, which has eroded external support for the SAF. Analysts describe the split between the military and Islamist factions as the collapse of a “marriage of convenience,” with Islamist figures such as Abdul-Hay Youssef, a fugitive cleric, vocally criticizing al-Burhan’s leadership. Youssef has called the SAF chief an “irreligious traitor” and claimed that jihadists, not the SAF, deserve credit for some of the military’s successes in battle.
Youssef’s remarks have sparked debate about the true power dynamics within the SAF, with some suggesting that Islamist elements within the military establishment may be influencing key decisions. This has raised fears that Islamist factions, who once supported al-Burhan, could now pose a serious challenge to his authority.
The Growing Threat of a Collapse
The increasing fragmentation within the Sudanese military establishment and the rising influence of Islamist forces are signaling the potential for a larger collapse of authority within the SAF.
With the war causing tens of thousands of deaths and displacing over 11 million people, Sudan is teetering on the brink of total state failure.
The United Nations has warned that 26 million Sudanese now face severe food shortages, adding to the mounting humanitarian crisis. As divisions within the military deepen and former allies turn against each other, the future of Sudan remains uncertain, with the possibility of a larger political and military collapse looming.
The Legacy of Haroun and Karti
Both Haroun and Karti, two of Sudan’s most notorious political figures, have played central roles in the country’s long history of violence and authoritarian rule. Haroun, once a minister in the al-Bashir government, faces charges of war crimes for his role in the Darfur conflict. Similarly, Karti, who served as Sudan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, was a key player in navigating Sudan’s foreign relations during a period of intense international scrutiny. Despite facing allegations of human rights violations, both men remain influential figures in Sudan’s political landscape.
Their roles in the NCP and their continued influence in the ongoing conflict are a testament to the deeply entrenched political and military networks that continue to shape Sudan’s troubled path. As Sudan faces the prospect of further fragmentation, the internal conflicts within the NCP may ultimately decide the future of the country.