Opposition unity in Nigeria has fractured sharply ahead of next January’s presidential election, weakening efforts to challenge President Bola Tinubu.
Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso have quit a newly formed opposition coalition, exposing deep internal divisions and legal disputes.
Both men, who finished third and fourth in the 2023 presidential election, had joined forces with Atiku Abubakar under an African Democratic Congress-led alliance.
The coalition had been presented as the most ambitious attempt in over a decade to unite Nigeria’s fragmented opposition.
On April 25, the alliance agreed to field a single presidential candidate in a bid to avoid splitting the opposition vote.
However, Obi said he left due to “endless court cases, internal battles, suspicion, and division” within the group.
Kwankwaso also departed, with both politicians joining another opposition platform, the Nigeria Democratic Congress.
ADC spokesperson Bolaji Abdullahi said the agreement on a joint candidate would now have to be reviewed.
Analysts say the exits highlight the persistent difficulty of political unity in Nigeria’s complex ethnic and regional landscape.
Cheta Nwanze of SBM Intelligence warned the plan for a unified candidate is now “on life support” after the latest breakaway.
He said a divided opposition risks “cannibalising its own votes” against an organised ruling party.
Tinubu won the last election with about 35% of votes, while opposition candidates collectively secured a larger share.
Yet rival ambitions between Atiku and Obi have long complicated attempts at consolidation under one ticket.
Presidential aide Bayo Onanuga criticised Obi, calling him inconsistent and opportunistic in a sharp public rebuke.
The ruling party now faces a weakened opposition, while benefiting from incumbency and a well-established political machine.
Nigeria has only once seen an incumbent defeated, in 2015 through a historic opposition merger.