Cameroon is facing growing political uncertainty over the fate of President Paul Biya, whose prolonged absence from public view has intensified speculation about who is running the country and triggered an emerging struggle over his eventual succession.
Biya, the world’s oldest serving head of state, was last seen publicly on June 7, when local media broadcast images of him and his wife preparing to leave Cameroon for an undisclosed European destination.
He has not made a public appearance since, prompting opposition figures to demand greater transparency over his condition and to raise the possibility of formally declaring the presidency vacant.
Professor Aba Oyono, a political activist aligned with former presidential candidate and opposition figure Issa Tchiroma, told Radio France Internationale that Cameroon was experiencing what he described as a vacuum at the highest level of government.
Rival factions position themselves
As rumours surrounding Biya’s health and whereabouts have intensified, the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement has rejected claims of a power vacuum.
The party said Biya continued to perform his presidential duties despite his absence from public events and official tours.
Political analyst Eric Eziba said the president’s extended disappearance had nevertheless exposed growing rivalry among competing factions within Cameroon’s ruling establishment.
Several influential figures are believed to be positioning themselves for the post-Biya era, including the president’s son, Franck Biya, who has developed considerable influence within the country’s political and business elite.
However, Eziba said the succession contest was unlikely to be limited to an attempt to transfer power within the Biya family.
Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, the powerful secretary-general of the presidency, is also widely viewed as a possible successor because of his extensive connections within the presidential palace and state institutions.
Ngoh Ngoh is believed to hold significant influence within Cameroon’s security and military establishment, potentially giving him the ability to consolidate power and sideline members of the Biya family once the presidency becomes vacant.
The competing ambitions have created an increasingly complex and uncertain political landscape, even as opposition groups explore constitutional mechanisms for a transition of power.
Opposition faces steep obstacles
With prominent opposition figures such as Maurice Kamto excluded from the political process, attention has increasingly turned to Issa Tchiroma, whose presidential campaign has become a focal point for demands for political change.
However, political analyst Mohamed Idris said Tchiroma’s chances of taking power remained limited, despite claims that he secured around 35% of the vote in the presidential election.
Idris argued that Tchiroma lacked the necessary influence within the security services and armed forces to prevail in a struggle for control of the state.
Cameroon’s constitution also stipulates that the president of the Senate should assume the presidency temporarily if the office becomes vacant.
That provision could place Senate President Aboubakary Abdoulaye in a strong position during any constitutional transition, particularly because he is believed to retain the confidence of influential figures within the presidential palace.
With no clear information about Biya’s condition or return, Cameroon’s political elite appears increasingly focused on the battle to shape the country’s leadership after his more than four decades in power.