President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, since beginning his second term in 2022, has charted a course toward a stable future for Somalia, advancing initiatives in internal security, economic development, diplomacy, and state-building. The unwavering offensive against Al-Shabaab terrorist organization, the most resilient branch of Al-Qaeda, has been pivotal in cementing national unity. Thanks to the dedication of the Somali National Army (SNA), the commitment of the Somalis, and the backing of allied nations, significant progress has been made in combating terrorism. A substantial area of the country has been liberated from the Al-Shabaab.
As the Somali state has decisively weakened Al-Shabaab’s capabilities, Ethiopia’s annexation attempts of Somali territories threaten to nullify these significant strides. This aggressive move, flouting international norms, not only jeopardizes the progress made in combating terrorism but also empowers the terrorist group, thereby risking stability and peace on both a regional and global scale.
Unraveling President Mohamud’s second term
In the initial stages of President Mohamud’s second term, Somalia has earned respect for its military, economic, and diplomatic achievements while also forging a more confident path forward by making significant strides in regional integration and educational development.
Somalia has made significant strides against Al-Shabaab, substantially depleting the group’s capabilities. The collective efforts, backed by the SNA and local support, have led to the liberation of many strategic areas, earning the nation greater international support in its fight against terrorism. The lifting of the United Nations’ arms embargo on Somalia marks a historic step in enhancing the country’s defense capabilities, bolstering regional security and stability. The transition of security responsibilities for Villa Somalia from the African Union (AU) to Somali forces has been successfully completed. In line with the decisions and plans of the African Union and the UN, AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) will conclude its operations by December 31, 2024, handing over its responsibilities to the SNA. These shifts underscore Somalia’s enhanced ability to address its own internal security issues and autonomously implement its national security strategies.
Somalia has realized notable advancements in its political and economic spheres, securing remarkable progress in national development and boosting its global standing. Somalia reflects, with its joining the East African Community (EAC), its escalating influence and commitment to regional collaboration, paving the way for enhanced partnerships in trade, investment, and infrastructure and active participation in regional unification efforts.
The World Bank and International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) $4.5 billion debt relief for Somalia, along with Russia’s debt cancellation, have affirmed the country’s economic reforms and improved its credit standing. These financial endorsements are crucial for Somalia’s sustainable development and societal advancements.
Educational investment has flourished under President Mohamud’s leadership, marked by the significant appointment of 3,000 teachers. Also, another 3,000 are slated for 2024. This milestone underscores a robust enhancement of the educational sector, ensuring the youth have access to quality education.
Somalia has made a notable leap forward with the progress on its Provisional Constitution, active since 2012. With the parliament’s endorsement of the amendment and voting procedures, the drive towards a universally supported constitution promises to fortify political stability and foster national unity.
Ethiopia’s persistent territorial aspirations toward Somalia
Securing victory in the elections with the slogan “A Somalia at peace with itself and the world” it is clear that the positive strides made during President Mohamud’s era, as indicated by the so-called a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, a federal entity of the Somali Federal Republic, have noticeably disturbed Ethiopia.
Ethiopia’s territorial claims over Somalia are not a new occurrence. However, as Somalis, we had thought Ethiopia had abandoned this stance due to the relatively peaceful relations that have prevailed over the past two decades, but it appears nothing has changed. Throughout history, Ethiopia’s aspirations toward Somalia have persisted, mirroring the situation as it stands today. Just as Russia’s aspiration to access warm seas has been a fundamental issue in Russo-Turkish relations since the 16th century, Ethiopia’s desire to reach the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean through Somali territories has been a central theme in Somali-Ethiopian relations for centuries. The presence of millions of ethnic Somalis in Ethiopia today, a consequence of Western colonial policies, stands as a primary testament to this historical fact.
Ethiopia’s contemporary aspirations, perceived as invasive and noncompliant, are driven by three fundamental reasons. Firstly, Ethiopia, consistent with its historical stance, perceives a fortifying Somalia as a potential threat, clinging to an outdated worldview from the Cold War era. Secondly, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, confronted with domestic political constraints, believes that diverting attention can carve out a strategic space for him domestically. Thirdly, Prime Minister Ahmed views the disruptions and the diminishing rationale in the international system as a window of opportunity to gain access to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, contemplating the creation of a de facto scenario in its favor.
However, these thoughts, products of a fanciful imagination, are significantly detached from regional and global realities. The lack of any legal basis for Ethiopia’s invasive aspirations is evident from the strong stance the international community has taken alongside Somalia. Ethiopia’s actions once again breach the founding principles of the UN Charter, including respect for territorial integrity, the sovereignty and equality of states, the inviolability of borders, and the principle of non-interference in internal affairs.
Ethiopia’s aim to secure naval bases in the strategic Gulf of Aden goes beyond trade ambitions, eyeing a military foothold instead. While Ethiopia has access to Somali ports for commerce, Somalia’s vision is for peace internally and globally, and it welcomes cooperative relations with all nations grounded in international law. However, history has consistently demonstrated that the Somali people possess an unwavering determination to oppose any nation that illegitimately exploits Somalia’s internal matters for its own ambitions. Somalis are committed to resisting further fragmentation, challenging the physical and psychological confines left by the legacy of colonialism.
Al-Shabaab exploits Ethiopia’s intrusive stance
Ethiopia’s 2006 incursion is widely acknowledged as a key factor in Al-Shabaab’s emergence. The recent so-called MoU, disregarding national and international laws, risks reigniting Al-Shabaab’s waning influence, contradicting the broader goal of regional stability. Al-Shabaab exploits Ethiopia’s intrusive stance, harnessing it to manipulate the religious and national sentiments of particular demographics for recruitment. The terrorist organization uses the widespread indignation among Somalis against Ethiopia’s encroachment to bolster its ranks. Furthermore, this so-called MoU is exploited by Al-Shabaab as a narrative to legitimize their cause by capitalizing on local discontent. Moreover, it creates a vacuum of power, escalating instability and diverting focus from the fight against terrorism. A potential power vacuum is almost certain to be exploited by extremist factions like Al-Shabaab, potentially escalating terrorism and piracy, thereby exacerbating the already precarious situation of international trade in the Gulf of Aden.
Ethiopia’s approach is inherently self-contradictory. The terrorist activities of Al-Shabaab extend beyond jeopardizing Somalia’s security, posing significant threats to the entire region, notably including Ethiopia itself. Persisting with this stance, Ethiopia risks inviting the very chaos it aims to avoid, with the scales it tips potentially tilting back against it. The strategic significance of Somalia is undeniable; turmoil within its borders inherently carries implications for regional and international security. Ethiopia, along with the wider international community, should pivot towards a cooperative approach that emphasizes constructive engagement.
Ethiopia’s diversionary tactics won’t impede the looming downfall of Al-Shabaab, a menace to global peace and our regional safety. Somalia, growing stronger by the day and fostering unity among its people, remains hopeful for the future. Somalia is continuing its steadfast battle against Al-Shabaab, just as it has before, and Somalia will resolutely oppose Ethiopia’s rule-defying encroachments, whatever the cost may be.