The U.S. State Department is finalizing preparations for ceasefire negotiations between Sudan’s warring factions, set to begin on August 14 in Geneva. Despite international efforts, initial consultations with Sudan’s military regime have encountered significant hurdles, casting doubt on the success of the upcoming talks.
The push for a ceasefire has gained some traction within Sudan and across the region, but the path forward remains fraught with uncertainty.
Hardliners within the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are reportedly working to undermine the initiative, potentially prolonging the conflict. The military junta, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, has been accused of attempting to stall the negotiations.
In contrast, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), under the leadership of Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, have confirmed their participation and are expected to attend the talks in Geneva on August 15. The RSF’s commitment comes as the international community intensifies efforts to bring an end to the violence that has ravaged Sudan since the outbreak of conflict in April.
U.S. Special Envoy Tom Perriello, who arrived in Geneva from Jeddah, expressed cautious optimism about the upcoming talks. In a social media post, Perriello thanked Saudi Arabia and Switzerland for co-hosting the event and emphasized the urgency of the international effort to resolve the crisis in Sudan. He highlighted the overwhelming desire among Sudanese civilians for an end to the daily terror of shelling, starvation, and sieges, reaffirming the U.S. commitment to supporting peace.
Perriello’s statement followed reports of unsuccessful consultations between the U.S. government and Sudan’s military regime in Jeddah. The talks, which involved a low-ranking official from Sudan’s military, reportedly ended without agreement on the regime’s participation in the Geneva negotiations. Minister of Minerals Mohamed Bashir Abunommo, who represented the Sudanese delegation, confirmed on social media that disagreements over key details led to the collapse of the consultations.
In a bid to avoid direct negotiations with the RSF, Sudan’s military government, now based in Port Sudan, has sought to involve third-party actors, particularly allied Darfur movements. While this tactic may not succeed, the appointment of Abunommo, affiliated with the SLM-Minawi faction, as a negotiator allows the regime to distance itself from the Geneva process while indirectly forcing the participation of its allies.
Despite these challenges, technical consultations among international parties are scheduled to begin on August 14 in Geneva, even if Sudan’s military delegation does not participate. The format of the talks remains unclear, but observers from the Arab League, African Union, IGAD, European Union, and several Middle Eastern and African nations are expected to attend.
The ongoing civil war in Sudan has drawn in regional powers, with the military reportedly seeking external support, including from Iran, to gain an advantage in the conflict. Sources revealed that a Sudanese delegation recently visited Iran to acquire drones, underscoring the escalating stakes in the war.
Meanwhile, the African Union continues to hold consultations with Sudanese opposition parties and civil society groups as part of preparations for an Inter-Sudanese Political Dialogue, contingent on a ceasefire agreement. These efforts, alongside the Geneva talks, represent a critical juncture in the pursuit of peace in Sudan.
The success of the ceasefire negotiations may also be influenced by the upcoming U.S. presidential election, which could impact the leadership dynamics at the State Department. Special Envoy Perriello’s role, pivotal in the current diplomatic efforts, could be affected by the election outcome, raising questions about the continuity of U.S. engagement in Sudanese affairs.
As the Geneva talks approach, the international community remains hopeful yet cautious, aware that the path to peace in Sudan is complex and fraught with challenges. The next few days will be crucial in determining whether the warring factions can be brought to the negotiating table and whether a sustainable ceasefire can be achieved.