South Africa’s ANC likely to lose parliamentary majority

South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) is likely to lose its parliamentary majority in May for the first time since Nelson Mandela led it to power at the fall of apartheid 30 years ago, a survey showed, opening up the prospect of coalition rule.

South Africans go to polls on May 29 to elect a new National Assembly, which will then choose the next president.

A survey of voter opinion in February by Johannesburg-based think tank The Brenthurst Foundation and the SABI Strategy Group estimated support for the ANC at 39%, down from 41% in October and 44% in November 2022.

The survey was modelled on the 66% turnout of the last general election in 2019, when the ANC got more than 57% of the vote.

A result below 50% in May would mean the former liberation movement would be forced to enter into a coalition with smaller parties to govern the country, a far cry from its best-ever result in 2004 under Thabo Mbeki when it secured almost 70% of the vote.

Its current leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa, has tried to clean up the party’s reputation and revive the economy since replacing Jacob Zuma in 2018, but has struggled to make much headway.

The biggest wakeup call came in local elections in 2021, when the ANC slipped below 50%. 

If it loses its majority, the party would need to enter into a coalition to remain in government and keep Ramaphosa as president for a second and final five-year term.

South Africans vote for a party and not a presidential candidate in a general election. Parties are then allocated places in the 400-seat Parliament according to their share of the vote, and lawmakers elect the president.

In the election, South Africans also will vote for the makeup of provincial legislatures in the country’s nine provinces. 

As of March 11, about 27,7 million voters (27,736,074) registered at the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) of South Africa.

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