South African citrus growers, heavily reliant on the U.S. market, now face an uncertain future as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House. Their products, along with 1,800 others from 32 African nations, benefit from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which grants duty-free access to the U.S. market.
However, Trump’s promise to impose a minimum 10-percent tariff on imports has African exporters worried. AGOA, initially enacted in 2000, is set to expire next year, and experts caution that it could be altered or withdrawn entirely. Such a move, they warn, could cost African exporters millions and disrupt thousands of jobs.
Justin Chadwick, CEO of the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa, said losing AGOA benefits could severely impact rural employment and lead to revenue losses of over a billion rand ($55.5 million). Another South African exporter remarked that without AGOA, their business, which employs over 3,000 people, would be devastated.
The potential AGOA rollback threatens not only agriculture but also automotive exports. Some companies, however, believe American consumers will continue to buy their products despite any price hikes caused by new tariffs.
Elsewhere in Africa, AGOA has been vital for industries like textiles, notably in Ghana, Kenya, and Lesotho. Kenyan politician Mukhisa Kituyi suggested that a “renegotiated” AGOA might emerge, focusing on strict rules of origin to prevent non-African goods from accessing U.S. markets under AGOA.
Analysts anticipate unpredictable policy shifts from Trump, advising African exporters to brace for volatility. Economists note that the broader African economy may not feel AGOA’s potential end directly but emphasize the need for strategic planning.
Whether renewed or revised, AGOA’s fate leaves African exporters walking a tightrope, uncertain about their future in the U.S. market.