China’s role in developing world finance has quietly reversed, shifting from a generous lender into a growing net receiver of repayments, new analysis shows.
The inaugural report by ONE Data finds poorer nations now send more money to China than they receive in new loans.
Africa sits at the heart of this reversal, where once-flowing credit has thinned while debt obligations continue to swell.
Between 2020 and 2024, multilateral institutions filled the widening gap, becoming the largest net financiers of global development.
Their net financing jumped 124% over the past decade, reaching $379 billion and accounting for 56% of worldwide net flows.
David McNair of ONE Data said dwindling Chinese lending, paired with persistent repayments, is driving the outward tide of capital.
The figures reveal Africa’s sharpest swing, from a $30 billion inflow in 2015–19 to a $22 billion outflow later.
For many governments, this change tightens already strained budgets, threatening public services while forcing tougher domestic financial choices.
The data excludes cuts that took effect in 2025, when aid reductions began reshaping the development finance landscape.
The closure of USAID and falling contributions from wealthy countries have already bruised vulnerable economies, particularly across Africa.
McNair warned future figures will likely show even steeper declines in official assistance, deepening pressure on public finances.
Yet a separate study suggests China’s overseas dealmaking revived in 2025, led by a surge in Belt and Road activity.
Researchers at Griffith Asia Institute found Belt and Road deals reached a record $213.5 billion, with Africa emerging as the largest recipient.
Launched in 2013, the initiative has stretched from an Asian trade vision into a vast global network of influence and infrastructure.
Together, the trends sketch a world where development finance flows shift shape, like rivers changing course under economic and political gravity.