
Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is set to face one of its most devastating mid-crop harvests in 15 years.
Production is expected to plummet to just 300,000 metric tons, significantly below the annual average of 500,000 tons. Industry experts and regulators warn that these figures could worsen if adverse weather conditions persist.
Severe drought and intense heat since November have ravaged the nation’s 13 cocoa-growing regions, stalling crop development. Typically, mid-crop beans begin arriving in April, but officials now project June as the earliest possible date—provided rains return swiftly.
“This year’s mid-crop will be catastrophic,” said a pod counter after surveying farms. “There’s virtually no sign of flowers or pods across most plantations.” His grim assessment was echoed by regulator officials, who have downgraded the production forecast from 400,000 tons to 300,000 tons.
Rising cocoa prices—already near record highs after tripling in 2024—are poised to surge further. Analysts predict the chocolate industry will face a tumultuous year, with consumer prices likely to see steep increases.
To safeguard local grinding operations, regulators have allocated nearly the entire mid-crop harvest to domestic processors. “Export contracts have been limited to 250,000 tons to ensure local grinders remain operational,” said an official.
Farmers describe the situation as unprecedented. Paul Kouame Kouakou, a cocoa farmer in Duekoue, lamented the absence of crucial December rains. “Even if rain comes now, it’s too late. We won’t see cocoa until June,” he said.
The lack of flowers and pods has left many plantations barren. “February and March are our hottest months, and conditions are worsening,” noted another pod counter. “This is terrible news for an already fragile crop.”