Nigeria’s economy is stabilising after sweeping reforms by President Bola Tinubu, the World Bank said Wednesday, yet millions still face crushing poverty. Tinubu, who assumed office in 2023, introduced long-awaited economic measures that triggered higher living costs for ordinary Nigerians, economists said.
Key reforms included liberalising the exchange rate and removing fuel subsidies, moves that sparked inflation but prevented a looming fiscal crisis. Inflation, which surged to 20.1 percent year-on-year in August, has since eased, prompting the central bank to cut interest rates last month.
Food prices remain a pressing concern, with poor households spending up to 70 percent of income on essentials, the World Bank noted. The cost of a basic food basket has risen fivefold between 2019 and 2024, pushing about 61 percent of Nigerians into poverty.
The bank said three-quarters of the poverty increase occurred before 2023, cautioning that reforms have yet to improve living standards widely. Despite this, the report described Nigeria’s outlook as “cautiously optimistic,” with growth projected to rise from 4.2 percent in 2025 to 4.4 percent in 2027.
Economic indicators are improving: first-half growth reached 3.9 percent in 2025, foreign reserves topped $42 billion, and the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall for the first time in a decade. World Bank country director Mathew Verghis stressed that macroeconomic stability alone is insufficient, urging reforms to benefit vulnerable Nigerians directly.
A new tax administration will begin next year, aiming to broaden the tax base while easing pressure on low-income earners and small businesses. In a televised address last week, Tinubu said the economy had “finally turned the corner,” signalling confidence in the government’s reform agenda.