Economic challenges

Fitch upgrades Egypt’s rating to B with stable outlook

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Economic hardship linked to tragic fuel tanker explosion in Nigeria

Residents of Lagos on Wednesday linked economic hardship and hunger to the tragic deaths of individuals who were collecting fuel from an overturned tanker before it exploded. The explosion in Nigeria claimed over 140 lives, including children, and left many injured. The incident occurred in Majiya, Jigawa State, around midnight when the driver lost control of the gasoline tanker on a highway, leading to a massive fire as people rushed to scoop up the spilling fuel, according to emergency services. “I blame both the people and the government,” said civil servant Emenike Okpaga. “If the government prioritized citizens’ welfare, incidents like this wouldn’t happen.” Software engineer Emmanuel Isaac added, “No one in their right mind would scoop fuel unless driven by hunger. When people see a chance to make money from it, they take it.” In Majiya, residents mourned as they held a mass burial for the victims, most of whom were unrecognizable, according to emergency responders. Fatal tanker accidents are frequent in Nigeria, where traffic regulations are often ignored and efficient cargo transport systems are lacking. The rising fuel prices, which have tripled since the end of government subsidies last year, have led many to salvage fuel from such accidents.

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Tunisians protest against president Said amid electoral tensions

For a second week, crowds of Tunisians took to Tunis’ main avenue to denounce president Kais Saied, not long before the presidential election on October 6th. They’re accusing him of reinforcing authoritarian rule and suppressing political competition.  The demonstration, which took place amid a heavy police protest, comes after lawmakers put forward a bill that would take away the administrative court’s power to adjudicate electoral disputes. The opposition insists that this would discredit the upcoming election, and lay the groundwork for Saied to clinch another term in office.  Earlier this month, the country’s electoral commission rejected a court ruling reinstating three presidential candidates, in what critics say is another example of Saied stamping out competition.  The president has denied accusations that he is using the electoral commission and judiciary to ensure a victory in October. Rather, he says he is waging a battle against traitors and the corrupt.  Political tensions in Tunisia have been on the rise since 2021, when Saied started to rule by decree. The opposition has called this move a ‘coup’.

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Ghana police arrest protesters over economic mismanagement

Ghana’s police have arrested dozens of demonstrators in the capital protesting against perceived economic mismanagement by the government. The crowds also expressed concerns over illegal mining practices that damage the environment. Police accused some protesters of attacking officers and pledged a strong response to those involved. A police spokesperson claimed the gatherings were unlawful and led to clashes. However, Democracy Hub, the group organizing the three-day protest, accused the police of attacking peaceful protesters. Oliver Barker Vormaw, a convenor for the group, stated, “We’ve contacted our lawyers regarding today’s actions. We’re warning everyone about potential random arrests.” The demonstrations come as Ghana prepares for its presidential election in December, with the country’s financial situation weighing heavily on voters. The nation is slowly recovering from a severe financial crisis in 2022 that pushed inflation to 54 percent.

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Nigeria’s inflation drops, but fuel prices threaten recovery

Nigeria’s inflation rate experienced a slight decrease in August, dropping from 33.40% in July to 32.15%. However, the declining value of the naira and rising fuel prices are undermining this progress, potentially reigniting inflation. Michael Anthony, an engineer and father of four, continues to face steep costs despite the small dip in inflation. “In July, I bought a bag of rice for 65,000 naira, but just three days ago, it cost me 95,000 naira,” he said, expressing concern that prices may rise again due to fuel costs. At a market in Abuja, food trader Blessing Ochuba is feeling the pinch. With customers unable to purchase in bulk, she’s reducing her stock and adjusting prices to stay afloat. “Customers who used to buy in bags are now buying half or a quarter because they can’t afford more,” she explained. “I used to buy 10 bags of rice, but now I can barely afford five. Everything is going up.” Despite the reported dip in inflation, Nigeria’s currency has weakened significantly, moving from 1,200 to 1,600 naira to the dollar, and gasoline prices have surged from 620 to nearly 1,000 naira per liter in just three months. Development economist Hauwa Mustapha attributed the slight decline in inflation to a government policy exempting food imports from excise duty for 90 days. “That helped boost food supply, but it doesn’t indicate a long-term recovery,” she noted, emphasizing the need for effective government measures. To manage inflation in both the short and long term, Mustapha suggests focusing on food supply policies. “As we approach harvest season, it’s crucial to minimize post-harvest losses to maintain a steady food supply.” Experts believe the government’s upcoming actions will determine if this inflation decrease marks a genuine recovery or merely a temporary reprieve.

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Fitch affirms South Africa’s BB- rating with stable outlook

Fitch Ratings said Friday it affirmed South Africa’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating at BB- with a stable outlook. The rating agency said South Africa’s rating is supported by the country’s favorable debt structure, strong institutions and a credible monetary policy framework. Those factors, however, are balanced against low real GDP growth, a high level of poverty and inequality, and a high government debt/GDP ratio. Fitch said it expects real GDP growth of 0.9% this year, after 0.7% last year. Real GDP is forecast to show growth of 1.5% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026. “Growth is hampered by a struggling logistics sector, deeply entrenched structural factors, particularly high levels of inequality, poverty and unemployment, and weak investment,” it said in a statement. “We expect the weakness to persist, despite robust demographics,” it added. “Electricity shortages, which dragged on growth in 2022 and 2023, are expected to ease, but sporadic incidents of load-shedding could still occur.” While headline inflation eased to 4.6% in July, Fitch expects it to fall to 4.5% by the end of the year, 4% in 2025 and 2026, as food and oil prices continue their slowdown.

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