A new analysis by Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research suggests the death toll in Gaza may be far higher than previously reported. Researchers estimate that at least 100,000 Palestinians were killed during the first two years of the war, a figure that sharply exceeds official counts.
Their projections place the likely number of deaths between 99,997 and 125,915, with a median estimate of 112,069. Project co-leader Irena Chen said the team does not expect to learn the exact toll, but aims to determine a realistic scale of loss.
The scientists combined Health Ministry records with an independent household survey and thousands of death reports posted on social media. Until now, the Gaza Health Ministry’s figure of 67,173 deaths had been the only official benchmark during the same period.
Zeit reported no evidence of manipulation in those numbers, noting that earlier research shows the ministry often undercounts deaths. Many victims are never formally registered, especially those buried under rubble or in areas where hospitals could no longer operate.
The Max Planck team built upon these gaps to generate detailed mortality estimates across age and gender groups. Their findings show that children under 15 likely represent about 27% of the dead, while women account for around 24%.
Researchers say women and the elderly are especially undercounted in official data, reflecting longstanding weaknesses in record-keeping. The study also examined the war’s impact on life expectancy, revealing a dramatic statistical collapse.
Before the conflict, life expectancy in Gaza stood at 77 years for women and 74 for men. For 2024, the researchers project it may fall to 46 years for women and 36 for men if current conditions persist.