Following a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, attention has turned back to the ongoing conflict in Gaza, but any hope for a swift resolution seems unlikely.
The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect on Wednesday, ending a year of escalating violence between the two. U.S. President Joe Biden, who announced the accord on Tuesday, stated that he would focus efforts on achieving a similar deal in Gaza, urging both Israel and Hamas to capitalize on the opportunity. However, Israeli officials are signaling that their objectives in Gaza remain distinct from those in Lebanon.
Agriculture Minister Avi Dichter, a member of Israel’s inner security cabinet, declared, “Gaza will never be a threat to the state of Israel again…We will reach a decisive victory there. Lebanon is different.” He emphasized that Israel’s goals in Gaza are far from complete, noting that the war is far from over.
Israel’s war aims are focused on the complete dismantling of Hamas, which launched deadly attacks on southern Israel in October 2023, and the recovery of over 100 Israeli hostages still held in Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that Hamas will be eradicated and the hostages brought home. This contrasts sharply with the focus on Hezbollah in Lebanon, where both sides agreed to a ceasefire.
Hamas, for its part, has accused Israel of refusing to negotiate in good faith. Spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri suggested that the Lebanon ceasefire could pave the way for a similar agreement in Gaza, but noted that Hamas remains committed to securing a deal that ends what it calls “genocide” against Palestinians.
The war in Gaza has dragged on longer than expected, with over 44,000 Palestinians killed and much of the region devastated. Despite the ceasefire in Lebanon, many Gazans feel abandoned, though some maintain hope that international efforts will shift focus to their plight. Egyptian officials have indicated that Israel has signaled a willingness to resume negotiations if the Lebanese ceasefire holds.
The Biden administration has also signaled renewed efforts for a Gaza ceasefire, with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stating that envoys would engage with key regional actors. However, the potential shift in U.S. leadership, with Donald Trump set to assume the presidency in January, has raised doubts among Palestinians, given his strong support for Israel.
Experts warn that the ceasefire in Lebanon could complicate efforts to end the Gaza conflict. Delinking the two wars may reduce international pressure on Israel, potentially prolonging the violence in Gaza. Some analysts suggest that Netanyahu’s political interests may align with continuing the war, as peace with Hamas could destabilize his government, which is composed largely of hardline factions.
Families of Israeli hostages have expressed frustration with the separate ceasefire deal, arguing that Hezbollah’s influence could have been used to press Hamas into releasing the hostages. Hamas, however, insists on the release of Palestinian prisoners and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza in exchange for the hostages, while rejecting Israel’s demand for disarmament.
As Israel’s military continues operations in Gaza, Dichter emphasized that Israel would remain in the territory “for a long time,” signaling that the conflict is far from over.