In a significant political shift, opposition leader Abdirahman Cirro has emerged victorious in Somaliland’s presidential election, defeating incumbent Muse Bihi Abdi, according to the electoral commission’s results announced on Tuesday. Cirro secured 64% of the vote, while Bihi garnered 35%. This marks a new chapter for the self-declared independent region, which has long sought global recognition.
Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991, has remained unrecognized internationally, hindering its access to international aid, finance, and travel for its citizens. Despite its de facto self-rule, the region’s quest for recognition remains central to its political agenda.
Cirro, leader of the Waddani opposition party, called for unity in his victory speech. “This election is not about a win or loss for the candidates but about the unity and future of Somaliland,” Cirro stated in a televised address.
Somaliland, strategically located between the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea, hopes its international recognition will soon follow a significant agreement made with Ethiopia earlier this year. The deal, which allows landlocked Ethiopia to access Somaliland’s coastline in exchange for recognition, has raised hopes for a breakthrough. Cirro’s victory also comes as the region anticipates support from the incoming U.S. administration under President-elect Donald Trump, with several former U.S. Africa policy officials voicing support for Somaliland’s recognition.
While Cirro has shown support for the pact with Ethiopia, his future stance on the agreement remains uncertain. Some analysts suggest that Cirro may pursue more diplomatic engagement with Somalia, which opposes the deal, potentially altering regional dynamics.
The agreement with Ethiopia has strained relations with Somalia, which has been at odds with Ethiopia over several issues, including their historical rivalry with Eritrea. Meanwhile, relations with Djibouti, which were also tense under Bihi, have improved, with President Ismail Omar Guelleh offering congratulations to Cirro.
Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud also congratulated Cirro, while reaffirming his commitment to ongoing reconciliation talks focused on Somalia’s unity.
Matt Bryden, a strategic adviser with the Sahan think tank, cautioned that Cirro’s approach to governance may differ from his campaign rhetoric. “There’s a big difference between campaigning and governing,” Bryden noted.
Cirro’s victory may also signal a shift in Somaliland’s foreign policy, potentially fostering closer ties with China, a major investor in the Horn of Africa. In the past, Cirro has questioned the value of Somaliland’s relationship with Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory.
As the region prepares for a change in leadership, all eyes are on how Cirro will navigate the complex political and diplomatic challenges ahead.