Israeli Channel 12 says Hamas is struggling to respond to U.S. President Donald Trump’s Gaza proposal unveiled Monday, with analysts arguing the group is unlikely to accept the terms unless Qatar and Turkey force a choice: sign the deal or face expulsion.
At the heart of Hamas’s hesitation, the channel reports, are four clauses that strike at its power base:
• Full disarmament and demolition of military infrastructure, including tunnels and weapons workshops
• Exclusion of Hamas and other factions from any transitional government in favor of a technocratic cabinet
• Immediate deployment of an international stabilization force to replace Hamas-run security organs
• Release of all hostages within 72 hours of signing, which Hamas fears would erase its main bargaining chip
Commentary cited by Channel 12 contends that growing regional support for the plan could deepen Hamas’s isolation if it refuses. The network frames Doha and Ankara as the only actors capable of compelling movement leaders to comply—by withdrawing political refuge if they reject the agreement.
Hamas has previously opposed disarmament and a rapid, front-loaded hostage release before a full Israeli withdrawal. The group has instead floated a phased exchange mechanism tied to compliance verification, while rejecting an external force that would supplant its policing authority.
Supporters of the Trump plan argue that rapid hostage releases, verified disarmament, and a neutral interim administration are prerequisites for a durable ceasefire. The Israeli analysis concludes that without coordinated pressure from Qatar and Turkey, prospects for Hamas’s endorsement remain slim.