The impacts of climate change on livelihoods are varying significantly across regions, with the most vulnerable areas, including many African countries, experiencing severe daily disruptions.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), African countries, despite contributing minimally to greenhouse gas emissions, are among the hardest hit by human-induced climate change. Factors such as high dependence on rain-fed agriculture, inequitable access to financial resources, and weak adaptation capacity contribute to the heightened impact.
The ND-GAIN index highlights that nine out of the ten most vulnerable and least resilient countries to climate change are in Africa, including Chad, the Central African Republic, Guinea-Bissau, Eritrea, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, Niger, Zimbabwe, and Liberia.
- Rising Sea Levels Threaten Africa’s Coastlines
Climate change is causing rising ocean levels that threaten Africa’s coastal metropolises with reduced land area, increased coastal flooding, and stronger storm surges. The African coastline has been experiencing a steady rise in sea levels for the past four decades. Experts predict that if this trend continues, sea levels could rise by 0.3 meters by 2030, affecting 117 million Africans.
The survival of Africa’s coastal ports, which handle an estimated 90% of the continent’s import and export trade, is at risk. This poses a concern for Africa’s rapidly growing population and urbanization in coastal areas.
Rising sea levels reveal the stark and destructive impact of global warming on a continent already facing rapid population growth and land pressure. Coastal cities are also facing increased public health risks due to rising groundwater levels and the transformation of urban areas into wetlands.
In addition, rising sea levels are causing severe flooding and erosion. The World Bank estimates that erosion, flooding, and pollution are causing approximately $3.8 billion in annual damage along 56% of the coastline in Benin, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Togo.
- Cities at Greatest Risk
Alexandria, located in the Nile Delta, is among the densely populated coastal cities at risk of being submerged within 30 years. A sensitivity assessment for Alexandria, Rosetta, and Port Said predicts that a 0.5-meter rise in sea levels by 2050 could displace over 2 million people, result in 214,000 job losses, and cause over $35 billion in damages. A 1-meter rise could lead to $50 billion in damage solely in Alexandria.
In Lagos, Nigeria, a city of over 20 million people, the total annual cost of river and water flooding is estimated at $4 billion. Some forecasts suggest that a 3-degree increase in global warming could force one-third of Lagos’s population to relocate due to rising sea levels.
The World Bank reports that Dakar, Senegal, has $39 billion worth of economic assets vulnerable to flooding. The city of St. Louis in Senegal is disappearing under rising waters, displacing many residents.
Mozambique’s coastal cities are also at risk, situated along a cyclone path that is expanding and intensifying due to rising sea surface temperatures.