West Africa’s regional body ECOWAS has invited Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso to return months after the three junta-led states quit the bloc, reviving debate over whether diplomacy can succeed where sanctions failed.
Sierra Leone’s president, Julius Maada Bio, who assumed ECOWAS’s rotating chair in June, appealed to the so-called Sahel alliance to rejoin, after the trio jointly withdrew on Jan. 29 despite regional and international efforts to dissuade them.
ECOWAS had imposed sweeping economic penalties and even floated the prospect of force—most notably in Niger after the ouster of President Mohamed Bazoum—in a bid to restore civilian rule.
But African affairs analyst Mohammed Turshin said the breakaway states are unlikely to be swayed. He argued they left convinced ECOWAS could not deliver on its original goals or support the sovereignty agenda their current authorities espouse, and predicted they will instead deepen their three-way partnership.
Nigerien political analyst Mohammed al-Haj Othman called a return “nearly impossible,” citing perceptions that ECOWAS sided with France and Western powers against the new regimes. He added the bloc has few recent security or economic successes to entice them back.
Bio has pledged to prioritize economic integration, security and democracy during his tenure, but critics say such promises are familiar—and unconvincing—to Bamako, Niamey and Ouagadougou.