Mali has entered a new phase of its long-running conflict as the Tuareg-led Front for the Liberation of Azawad (FLA), formed in December 2024, steps up operations against the army and its Russian allies from the “Africa Corps.”
The Jamestown Foundation reports that since June the FLA has intensified attacks on Malian units and Russian personnel, including clashes on the outskirts of Aguelhok in the northeast. A joint Malian–Africa Corps convoy reportedly came under interdiction while working to establish a new air corridor. Although the Malian army said the situation was under control, imagery from the scene indicated losses on both sides, underscoring the fragility of Russia’s footprint in the area.
Two days after that battle, a Russian Su-24 is reported to have crashed near Gao, highlighting the operational risks facing Russian contractors engaged in counterinsurgency missions. They operate in a crowded battlespace that includes Tuareg insurgents and jihadist factions such as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (IS-GS).
Analysts say the sequencing of FLA and jihadist attacks sometimes suggests ad-hoc, tactical convergence despite divergent goals: Tuareg groups seek autonomy and ethno-political self-rule, while JNIM aims to impose its version of Islamic governance. Both, however, target the Malian army and the Africa Corps.
This recalibrated balance makes the northern conflict more complex than a conventional military showdown. It is also a contest for legitimacy and external recognition. By deploying drones and coordinating raids, the FLA has shown it can sustain pressure on Russian elements, positioning itself as a local actor that could attract outside backing—either as a counterterror partner or a potential intermediary.
For Russia’s Africa Corps, the challenge is twofold: maintain battlefield equilibrium alongside Malian forces while containing a resurgent Tuareg insurgency that could drain manpower and resources over time. Control of northern Mali is no longer a matter of firepower alone; it hinges on navigating local dynamics of ethnicity, politics, and international standing.