Analysts consider the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) control over Nyala, the capital of South Darfur state and the second-largest city in Sudan, a significant development in the ongoing war for approximately seven months.
They speculate that the RSF leadership might aim to establish authority in the western part of the country, similar to the model seen in eastern Libya, if the ongoing negotiations between the Sudanese army and the RSF do not reach a settlement to end the crisis.
Nyala is the second-largest city in the country after the capital, Khartoum, in terms of population and economic significance. It hosts an international airport linking it with neighbouring African countries. It is the first headquarters of the army in the Darfur region to be taken over by the RSF.
Controlling Nyala
After intense battles and clashes that lasted for several months, the RSF announced on 26 October their seizure of the 16th Infantry Division, the western command center of the Sudanese army.
Abdelrahim Dagalo, the second-in-command of the RSF, declared on Saturday that his forces had completed their control over Nyala. He established a civil and military administration to govern the city and urged those displaced from it to return to their homes, promising to protect them.
Abdelrahim Dagalo appointed Saleh al-Footi, a commander in the RSF, as the new leader of the 16th Infantry Division. Brigadier Bashir Adam Issa took charge as the director of police forces, overseeing the reopening of essential services like police stations, courts, and communication infrastructure.
Additionally, Daglo established a joint force of the RSF and armed struggle movements to detain former regime leaders and prepare them for justice proceedings.
There has been no comment from the Sudanese army on the situation in Nyala. However, a military official stated that the army forces withdrew in an organized manner from their headquarters in Nyala to outside the city with their heavy and light weapons. This action followed their several-day-long encirclement and the depletion of ammunition, supplies, and medical aid.
A trump card
Nyala is the second-largest city in Sudan after Khartoum in terms of population and economic activity. Its geographic location makes it one of the most vital land ports that supplies several African countries with needed goods through its significant border crossings.
Experts believe that the RSF’s control over Nyala will likely impact the ongoing negotiations in Jeddah between the warring parties. This control might encourage a gradual resolution starting with humanitarian assistance and a ceasefire to ease the progression of such resolutions.
The significance of Nyala also arises from its strategic location, as it shares borders with the Central African Republic, Chad, and South Sudan. It also houses the largest gold mines in the Darfur region in the Songo area.
Separation scenario
There is speculation that the RSF leadership might move towards establishing authority in Nyala (western Sudan) as opposed to the transitional government led by the head of the Sovereignty Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The council uses Port Sudan as a temporary headquarters, situated in the Red Sea State (eastern Sudan).
However, the advisor to the RSF, Al-Pasha Mohamed Tabiek, mentioned that their control over Nyala is part of their operational plan to control several army headquarters, including taking control of some army headquarters within the states in the coming days.
Tabiek affirmed that their intention is not to replicate the Libyan or Yemeni models or to divide Sudan after capturing Nyala. They attended the Jeddah negotiations in recognition of the Sudanese people’s circumstances and response to the Saudi-American mediation.
He further mentioned that the Jeddah Platform aims to reach an agreement on a ceasefire, open humanitarian channels to provide aid to those affected by the war, and facilitate the return of displaced citizens to their homes.