On Tuesday, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan narrowly escaped an alleged assassination attempt, occurring just one day after his government hinted at a willingness to participate in US-backed ceasefire talks in Switzerland.
During a military graduation ceremony on Wednesday, al-Burhan publicly rejected the proposed talks in Geneva and demanded global recognition of his authority over Sudan. His delayed response to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s invitation for the peace summit, scheduled for August 14, contrasts with his previous dismissals of international negotiations.
The attempted attack reportedly took place in Red Sea State during a military parade and cadet graduation ceremony in Gebeit. Sources indicate that two suicide drones targeted the event, resulting in five fatalities and several injuries, according to a rapid press release from the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). This prompt communication is unusual for SAF, known for its typically slower updates in such situations.
Following the incident, al-Burhan addressed his supporters with a resolute message, “one army, one people,” and visited the wounded at Gibeit Hospital, also attending the victims’ funeral.
The attack has sparked comparisons with recent assassination attempts on high-profile figures, including US presidential candidate Donald Trump, with Sudanese social media users drawing parallels between Burhan and Trump.
Burhan survived an assassination attempt so someone made this edit 😂 pic.twitter.com/CphDZ3H5Fo
— Cooltaha ඞ 🔻@Khive (@ohyeahmister2) August 1, 2024
Speculation and Patterns
There is significant speculation about the attack’s origins. Possibilities range from regime hardliners opposed to peace negotiations to potential involvement by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Despite this, the RSF’s lack of long-range drone technology makes them an unlikely culprit.
However, recent Sudan-Iran relations and Tehran’s support for SAF suggest the possibility of Iranian drones being involved.
The RSF would gain little from targeting Burhan, who is widely disliked. This incident follows a pattern of suspicious drone attacks in SAF-controlled regions, which some analysts view as potential “false flag” operations intended to bolster pro-war factions and undermine ceasefire efforts.
Political Implications
The alleged assassination attempt may politically benefit al-Burhan, potentially addressing criticisms of military inefficiency and justifying crackdowns on perceived opponents. These crackdowns have intensified, with thousands detained on accusations of collaborating with the RSF or opposing the war.
The timing of the attack is significant, coinciding with Sudan’s foreign ministry’s request for consultations with the US on ceasefire talks. Despite Burhan’s public rejection of negotiations, his government showed some willingness for dialogue, a stance the RSF had already accepted.
US Special Envoy Tom Perriello has been preparing for these talks with backing from the Arab League, IGAD, and the UN. The US State Department has condemned the violence but has not provided extensive comments on the attack.
Lack of Visual Evidence
As of Wednesday, there is no definitive visual evidence of the drone attack. Available footage shows only panicked reactions and smoke, without clear evidence of the drones, explosions, or casualties.