The African Development Bank (AfDB) has revised down Africa’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.9%, a slight dip from its earlier prediction.
This projection, outlined in the bank’s annual African Economic Outlook report, marks an increase from last year’s 3.3% but reflects a 0.2 percentage point downgrade.
The main cause of this revision is the uncertainty surrounding new trade tariffs imposed by the United States, which are rattling global markets.
AfDB’s capital stands at $318 billion, making it Africa’s largest development lender. It also cut the 2026 growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 4.0%.
“Since January 2025, the world has experienced additional shocks, exacerbating an already complex global macroeconomic landscape,” the report said.
These shocks include a cascade of U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures by its trading partners, causing ripple effects worldwide.
The AfDB warned that the global slowdown would reduce demand, hurting Africa’s exports and overall economic momentum.
A 90-day pause on the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs by the U.S. adds uncertainty to how the situation will evolve.
Though the U.S. accounts for only 5% of Africa’s annual trade, the continent has felt the impact through falling commodity prices and asset devaluations.
Despite these challenges, 21 African economies are expected to grow above 5% this year, with Ethiopia, Niger, Rwanda, and Senegal projected to exceed 7%.
The AfDB’s report paints a picture of cautious optimism amid a turbulent global economic environment.