Germany’s conservatives clinched victory in Sunday’s elections, positioning their leader Friedrich Merz as the next chancellor, while the far-right AfD surged to a record-breaking second place.
Exit polls indicate that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) nearly doubled its previous vote share, securing at least 19.5 percent, driven by public concerns over immigration and security.
The CDU/CSU alliance, led by Merz, emerged as the dominant force with at least 28.5 percent, while the center-left SPD of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz faced a crushing defeat at around 16 percent.
Merz, a long-time critic of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, has promised a strict crackdown on irregular migration to counter the AfD’s rising influence.
Despite its gains, the AfD remains sidelined as mainstream parties uphold a “firewall” policy of non-cooperation, keeping it out of power.
AfD leader Alice Weidel celebrated the result as “historic” and reiterated her party’s readiness to govern alongside the CDU/CSU.
Before assuming office, Merz must navigate coalition talks, a notoriously lengthy process in Germany, which he has pledged to conclude by Easter.
The delay threatens to leave Berlin in limbo at a time of global uncertainty, particularly with mounting pressure from the U.S. regarding the war in Ukraine.
“The world is not waiting for us,” Merz warned, urging swift coalition agreements to stabilize Germany’s leadership.
To secure a majority, Merz may negotiate with the SPD—excluding Scholz—or the Greens, who polled around 12 percent, despite resistance from his Bavarian allies.
Meanwhile, smaller parties like the Free Democrats (FDP) and the far-left Die Linke face uncertain futures as they hover near the Bundestag’s entry threshold.
This election unfolds amid seismic geopolitical shifts, as Donald Trump’s outreach to Vladimir Putin raises concerns over NATO’s stability.
Germany’s economic future also hangs in the balance, with fears of a potential U.S.-EU trade war under a second Trump administration.
Merz has pledged a “strong voice” in Europe, vowing that Germany will claim its place at the world’s main negotiating table.
The AfD’s rise was further fueled by a string of deadly attacks blamed on asylum seekers, stoking fears that reshaped voter sentiment.
In December, a car attack at a Christmas market killed six, followed by two knife rampages and another vehicle attack in Munich.
Just days before the vote, a Syrian man was arrested for allegedly attempting to kill a tourist at Berlin’s Holocaust memorial.
Analysts warn that if mainstream parties fail to address voter frustrations, the far right could seize power in the next election.
“Germany’s establishment parties have one last chance,” said political expert Michael Broening, cautioning that their dominance is no longer guaranteed.