High-level negotiations between Iran and the United States are set to begin in Oman today, as both sides attempt to restart stalled talks over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear programme. The discussions take place against a backdrop of deepening regional instability and mounting threats of military confrontation.
Iran remains highly sceptical of the prospects for a breakthrough, particularly under the shadow of repeated threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has warned of military action should talks fail to produce a deal. Tehran is especially wary of Trump’s demand for face-to-face talks, while Iran is pushing for indirect engagement.
Despite both sides expressing cautious optimism, fundamental differences persist in a standoff that has lasted more than 20 years. The outcome of the talks could significantly influence a Middle East already rocked by conflict—from the Gaza and Lebanon wars to Red Sea shipping attacks by Yemen’s Houthis, and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria.
A collapse in negotiations would likely stoke fears of a broader regional war. Tehran has warned its neighbours—particularly those hosting U.S. military bases—that they could face “severe consequences” if they support a U.S. offensive.
According to an Iranian official, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has granted Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi full authority to negotiate on Tehran’s behalf. Araqchi will lead the Iranian delegation, while Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy, will represent Washington.
“The talks will focus exclusively on nuclear issues,” said the Iranian official, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the matter. “Their length and outcome depend entirely on America’s seriousness and goodwill.”
Iran has ruled out any negotiations on its missile programme or broader defence capabilities.
Longstanding Dispute, Rising Stakes
Iran insists its nuclear activities are for peaceful, civilian use. However, Western powers argue that uranium enrichment has far surpassed civilian needs, with Iran producing material at levels dangerously close to weapons-grade.
Since Trump pulled the U.S. out of the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018 and reinstated sweeping sanctions, Iran has expanded its nuclear activities, now enriching uranium to 60%—a short technical step away from weapons-grade material.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed hope for a peaceful outcome, reiterating Washington’s firm stance: “Iran will never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. That’s why we’re here.”
Tehran responded Friday by accusing Washington of “confrontational hoopla” but said it was offering a “genuine chance” to reach an agreement.
Israel, a staunch U.S. ally and vocal opponent of Iran’s nuclear programme, has repeatedly threatened to take unilateral military action if diplomacy fails.
Iran’s regional leverage has diminished significantly in recent years. Its network of allied groups—collectively referred to as the “Axis of Resistance”—has been severely weakened since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war and the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in late 2024. This network includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza, and Shia militias across Iraq and Syria.
Whether these talks in Oman can reverse Iran’s isolation or avert a wider war remains uncertain—but all sides agree the stakes are higher than ever.