Egypt

Egypt warns no peace in region without Gaza ceasefire

Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty stated on Saturday that without a ceasefire in Gaza, there “will be no peace or security” in the region. During a news conference with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, Abdelatty condemned Israel’s actions, emphasizing that “in the twenty-first century, we cannot accept a policy of starving over 2.2 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.” Sybiha criticized Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, linking it to various global crises. “This war in Ukraine is not just about Ukraine; it’s about restoring a world order based on international law,” he said. He also announced that Ukraine is planning another Global Peace Summit, inviting Russian representatives to participate. Israel’s Netanyahu rejects Egyptian cease-fire initiative in Gaza  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected an initiative proposed by Egypt on Sunday for a short-term cease-fire with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi announced the proposal, according to Israeli media. “We proposed a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip for two days to exchange four (Israeli) hostages for some (Palestinian) prisoners, and then negotiations would take place over 10 days to turn the cease-fire into a permanent truce,” al-Sisi said during a joint press conference with Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune in the capital Cairo. Despite the support of most Israeli ministers for the Egyptian proposal, Tel Aviv decided to reject the deal due to opposition from Netanyahu, who emphasized that “negotiations will take place only under fire,” according to Israel’s Channel 12. The channel confirmed that Israel’s security establishment also supported the proposal. Israel estimates that around 101 of its citizens are still being held captive by the Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza amid concerns that some of them may have already been killed in indiscriminate Israeli airstrikes across the densely populated area. Efforts led by the US, Egypt and Qatar to secure a cease-fire and facilitate a prisoner swap between Israel and Hamas have so far stalled, with Netanyahu refusing to consider ending the conflict. The Israeli army has continued a devastating offensive on the Gaza Strip since a cross-border incursion by Hamas last October, despite a UN Security Council resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire. Nearly 43,000 people have since been killed, mostly women and children, and over 100,000 others injured, according to local health authorities. The Israeli onslaught has displaced almost the entire population of the territory amid an ongoing blockade that has led to severe shortages of food, clean water and medicine. Israel also faces a genocide case at the International Court of Justice for its actions in Gaza.

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Egypt’s Economy Expected to Grow 4% by June 2025

Egypt’s economy is projected to grow by 4.0% by June 2025 as it begins to recover from austerity measures linked to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program, according to a recent Reuters survey of economists. The poll, conducted from October 9 to 23, anticipates GDP growth will accelerate to 4.7% in the fiscal year 2025/26 and rise further to 5.3% by 2026/27. In the current fiscal year 2023/24, GDP growth is expected to fall to 2.4%, down from 3.8% the previous year. Key challenges include a currency crisis and ongoing conflict in neighboring Gaza, which have negatively impacted tourism and Suez Canal revenues. Earlier this year, Egypt secured a major agreement with the UAE’s ADQ sovereign fund for $24 billion in development rights for real estate along its Mediterranean coast. This deal facilitated an $8 billion financial reform package with the IMF in March. James Swanston from Capital Economics noted that while Egypt’s economic outlook is gradually improving, strict fiscal policies will remain essential to address the budget deficit and the debt-to-GDP ratio. He highlighted that the benefits of a weaker pound are beginning to materialize. Although inflation is slowing, it is expected to remain high, with forecasts of 20.4% for 2024/25 and 11.4% for 2025/26. Inflation slightly rose to 26.4% in September, down from a peak of 38.0% in 2023. The IMF also estimates a 4.1% growth rate for Egypt’s economy in 2025. Analysts predict further depreciation of the Egyptian pound, forecasting it to reach about 50.4 per dollar by the end of June 2025 and 52.0 by June 2026. The central bank previously maintained the pound’s value at 30.85 to the dollar until it was allowed to float in March 2024; the current exchange rate is around 48.8 to the dollar. Additionally, analysts expect the central bank’s overnight lending rate to decrease to 22.25% by June 2025 and further to 14.25% by June 2026, providing much-needed support for households and businesses in the coming years.

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